Ethiopia: was CUD set up by the liberation fronts?

After more than 20 months, our CUD leaders are finally free. Unless something extraordinary happens, according to many sources, the Kinijit leaders who have been convicted by the Ethiopian court will be free next week. Apparently Kinijit leaders in Kaliti prison have signed a proposal that gives partial CUD responsibility of the violence and “shows” that CUD/Kinijit leaders accepted that they attempted to overthrow the government by unconstitutional means. Many elders and Ethiopian mediators have been involved as well as Western officials. In general, this is mostly a good thing for Ethiopia, especially if negotiations continue further to develop democratic institutions. Specifically this is definitely a very bad news for OLF, ONLF and the Eritrean government but the other question is - were the CUD leaders being set up or tricked by the liberation fronts all along?
What made all the controversies of a secret alliance against CUD very legitimate was the growing focus of the Ethiopian court on charging CUD of “launching an armed rebellion.” Also another sign was that whenever there were doubts from foreign observers regarding the slow court or legal process, EPRDF politicians often used the “terrorist” card, especially because CUD was allied with the OLF and ONLF under the umbrella AFD. Especially the ONLF oil field massacre helped EPRDF more than it harmed it. Thus it was no surprise that the EPRDF very confidently charged more CUD members with trying to “launch an armed rebellion.” So one wonders if the experienced OLF knew that all of this strategic & legal threat was rising on CUD but ignored it.
But the first question should be: why would OLF and ONLF put this trap on CUD?
The foundation and the essence of this controversy are the basic historical facts on OLF, ONLF, Eritrea and even on spies inside CUD itself. OLF is the co-architect of the current Ethiopian ethnic federalism based constitution organized in the early 1990s, but according to many sources, Article 39 which allows secession of ethnic states is not respected by EPRDF. It is just on paper. In fact, the EPRDF might be using this card just to appear like a pro-liberation government; especially we have seen Mr. Bereket Simon use this card when he is faced with tough questions about difficulties in the Ogaden.
Last month when Bereket was asked tough questions on the Ogaden plight, he said:
“Somali-speaking people inhabiting our region, they are Ethiopians, they have full rights.”
Then when asked about ONLF’s growing pressure, Bereket said,
“They can secede from Ethiopia if they want. Their right is respected to this level so they have never enjoyed better!”
So for EPRDF, Article 39 is just a card to deal against ONLF's pressure, thus it is not a surprise that the OLF and ONLF left Ethiopia in the early days of the EPRDF government. Article 39 (though still potentially dangerous to Ethiopia) is just a piece of useless paper for EPRDF. The question of a referendum and secession is the one and the only question in the minds of OLF and ONLF. According to USCIS, regarding the early transitional days of the 1990s,
“Initially, the OLF attempted to shift the balance of power somewhat by participating in the Paris and Addis Ababa opposition conferences and by calling on the EPRDF to acknowledge these opposition parties as legitimate voices in Ethiopian politics. However, the strong "centrist" flavor of the Addis Ababa conference alienated the OLF, which continues to reserve the right to withdraw from Ethiopia.”
Then on ONLF, the USCIS document went on saying
“The ONLF's justification for boycotting the election is that the draft Constitution which the Transitional Government has written, and which is almost certain to be adopted, "systematically and subtly" denies the concept of self-determination, violating the 1991 Charter which promised to guarantee the rights of nationalities for "self-determination up to and including secession.”
“The newly-introduced Constitution does appear, on paper, to continue to guarantee the right to self-determination and even secession, but in practice NONE of the ethnic-based movements which have demanded referenda on autonomy or secession -- or even the right to campaign openly and freely for these goals -- have found the EPRDF cooperative.”
Therefore USCIS said
“many of the ethnic-based parties, such as the OLF and ONLF, boycotted the election because of the perception that, in practice, the EPRDF is obstructing conditions (such as allowing referenda) which could determine whether or not ethnic groups want to secede, and that therefore secession is not a genuine option.”
So EPRDF’s refusal to allow referendum for OLF and ONLF is the main reason why they are waging guerrilla wars since the beginning. And obviously, they have the same policies as before and they are not going to betray their guerrilla fighters after so many years. Even one of the ONLF leaders proudly said last week to New York Times that ONLF’s objective is actually the continuation of the 1977-78 Somalia vs. Ethiopia War. According to the NY Times, even thought in the 1977-78 war Somalia tried, disastrously, to pry the Ogaden out of Ethiopia’s hands and lost thousands of men one of the ONLF leaders even said “it is up to us now” to continue that 1977 war.
So ideologically the stance of ONLF and OLF is clear: it is all about secession. (Even without pressure, OLF doesn't have enough Oromo support to achieve its goals. Thus OLF must use violence and propaganda just to gain majority Oromo support.) Anyhow the general consensus is that it is all about separation from Ethiopia for OLF & ONLF. But why then frame or trick CUD?
The answer is what most pro-CUD Ethiopians have been trying to ignore since 2005 and this is that the OLF was the most vocal anti-CUD group of all groups and OLF labeled the CUD “neo-neftengas” and “the greater of two evils” even while comparing to the TPLF. The OLF not just insulted CUD but also discredited almost all the fundamental policies of CUD. If OLF, which claims to lead Oromo Ethiopians (who are mostly mixed with other Ethiopians) says this, then it is not hard to imagine what ONLF says about pro-unity groups.
Ironically, for many years the OLF has stayed away from allying itself with Oromo political parties inside Ethiopia. OLF has publicly stated that all armed groups (which EPRDF labels “terrorists”) only bring danger to “legal” political parties if OLF works with them. In fact in one interview the OLF chairman Mr. Dawud Ibsa Ayana said,
“We don't have any official relationship with ONC or OFDM….They are “legal” and we are “illegal” at this time, this according to the Ethiopian Government, and thus we cannot have official relationship with them because the authorities will immediately attack them if we had formal relationship. For this, we have refrained from having any official relationship with them for their own security.”
So the question is, if OLF knew that the AFD would similarly bring physical, strategic and legal crisis to CUD leaders by allying with them, why did it swiftly form the AFD? (This question is completely different from the other big former issue of the word “Ethiopia” being left out from A.F.D.) The current issue is specifically about the secret intentions of OLF, ONLF and the Eritrean government in putting CUD inside AFD. Why didn't OLF follow the same safe policy it used for ONC towards CUD as well? Not only that, were there agents inside CUD itself that blindly placed CUD in this dangerous position?
In general, it seems like it was a set up by the liberation fronts which are waging guerrilla wars. For example, if you are put in the position of the OLF, what would you do? By putting CUD inside AFD, what would your OLF gain? The answer is simple. It was a win-win situation for OLF and ONLF. In the first scenario, OLF/ONLF getting the support of CUD means getting the support of the Urban population and many others. It will be an inside -outside perfect combination with pro-CUD empowered urbans from the inside and the liberation fronts from the outside. From the inside, it would be CUD supporters harming EPRDF and OPDO/ANDM & other supporters slowly defecting from TPLF. From the outside it would be OLF, ONLF and the Eritrean government attacking TPLF. In the end, if the TPLF/EPRDF falls down, since the liberation militia are the most powerful and since all the guns would be mostly in the control of OLF & ONLF - the new order in the post-EPRDF Ethiopia would be an OLF/ONLF festival. Meaning numerous secessions and referendums beginning everywhere in Ethiopia. In the second scenario, since the OLF & ONLF know the behavior of EPRDF (calling all armed groups "illegal" & “terrorists”), making CUD part of an armed alliance like AFD means criminalizing or making CUD “illegal.” This obviously creates a strategic and legal crisis for CUD. But since the failure of CUD means the end of the obstacle for OLF/ONLF implementing Article 39, it would be a positive outcome for the armed liberation fronts. The important thing for OLF and ONLF is if they can’t exploit CUD’s urban base via AFD, then at least they can incriminate it. Thus the most logical theory says AFD was a win-win situation for OLF and ONLF. And the CUD "set up" might not be too far from the reality.
Still nobody will know for sure if all of this controversy and such theories are all accurate. But one thing that everybody can be sure about is that the OLF and ONLF are now in a terrible position. They have both failed to overthrow EPRDF as well as failed to permenantly criminalize CUD enough to make it irrelevant even inside the current Ethiopian constitution & order. If the EPRDF-CUD-UEDF negotiations and agreements succeed, things can go even more downhill for the separatist groups. If CUD takes power and eventually outlaws Article 39, then the OLF and ONLF can not simply ask for negotiations anymore. They would be forced to run for an election so that they can gain the majority enough to put back Article 39 on the Ethiopian constitution, and proceed from there. But this would be impossible to do by OLF/ONLF for many reasons. Even if an OLF replica political party competes in future elections, almost all of the population in the Amhara State, Addis Ababa, Afar, Dire Dawa, SNNP and even half of Tigrai & Oromia states would never vote for an OLF replica political party. Even most of Gambela would not support it for many reasons. One of these reasons is the issue of "Greater Oromiya" ideology against the citizens of Gambella. According to the African Institute for Security Studies (ISS),
“In the late 1980s the newly created Anuak rebel group, the GPLM, appealed first to the OLF for help. But the OLF made its support conditional upon the acceptance of Oromo supremacy in the area.”
Thus ISS continues by reporting that,
“OLF members are given military training at Sawa with the support of the Eritrean government and are brought by plane to Pochalla, and then to Tirgol in the Akobo wereda of Gambella. Clearly, the OLF has grand ambitions in the area and regards Gambella region (partly because in the past it was under Illubabur province) as part of Greater Oromiya.”
So even Gambella can not be a support base for an OLF replica political party in future elections. Clearly, once CUD removes Article 39 from the constitution, even if OLF participates in any future elections, it will never win. Let alone a referendum, Article 39 itself can be gone forever. AFD was the last chance for OLF and ONLF to succeed with their secession plans which they advocated for many decades. So if recent news that says the CUD leaders will be freed is accurate and then if genuine negotiations between EPRDF, CUD & UEDF leads to major compromises, the people of Ethiopia might never worry about the anti-Ethiopia Article 39 anymore.