Ethiopia's Next Prime Minister ???

(By Galmo Haromaya) In the recent interview with Jonathan Dimlbey of the Teachers TV, the prime minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, has reaffirmed that he would not seek office during the next election. Meles had made similar statements in the past but had never been materialized. What makes this round of statement more likely to be true is the fact that Meles has faced increasing pressure from his own ruling party, the Tigrean People Libration Front (TPLF), to step down. Inside information has conformed to this writer that several members of the Politburo of TPLF have advised Meles that he must step down for the sake of reviving the party’s image as a democratic organization.

This recent announcement by the Mr. Zenawi has led many people to speculate about who his successor is going to be. The speculation and rumor has created intense debate among supporters of the Zenawi’s government. The Tigrean community in particular is divided along two lines in this debate. Hardliner Tigrean nationalists have insisted that the next prime minster must be a member of TPLF while moderates have continued to advocate for appointing a non-Tigrean in order to give credibility to the administration and to silence the opposition group that are protesting against Tigrean domination of Ethiopian politics.

The former argues that in the face of mounting pressure against the Tigrean leadership, and the continuing defection of non-Tigreans from the government, it is becoming impossible to trust a non-Tigrean holding a key government position. They fear that, even though they appoint a trusted individual from one of the three members of the TPLF-controlled coalition, Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the individual might align with opposition groups of his own ethnicity. They support their argument by referring to recent defections of once highly trusted military commanders and high ranking officials, mostly from Oromo ethnic group.

The later argues that appointing a Tigrean would further increase the tension and suspicion against the Tigrean ruling elites and validates to the international community the allegation that Ethiopia is fully run by Tigreans. They believe that it is necessary to appoint a non-Tigrean while putting a system that enables for a greater TPLF control. According to this group, this model would work because the prime minister would be surrounded by Tigreans who would serve as advisors and security personnel. They also believe that even though Zenawi officially steps down, he would still remain closely involved in all decision making process as an advisor.

However, those who advocate for appointment of a non-Tigrean seem to be dominating the debate. Even though the Tigreans in Diaspora and the elites in Mekele and Addis are as apprehensive about appointing a non-Tigrean to the prime ministerial position, they seem to be convinced that it is absolutely impossible to retain power under Tigrean domination unless a non-Tigrean is appointed to give a semblance of change and real democracy.

The next controversial question was from which ethnic group the non-Tigrian future prime minister should be appointed from. By virtue of their sheer number as well as their domination of opposition politics, a PM from the Oromo or Amhara ethnic groups were considered and intensely debated upon among the Tigrean elites. Those who advocate for an appointment of an Amhara justify their position by pointing to two crucial differences between Amharas and Oromos within the EPRDF. They believe that the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) leadership has shown better loyalty to the TPLF- leadership than the Oromo People Democratic Organization (OPDO). This claim is supported by the apparent high rate of defection from OPDO compared to that of ANDM. The figures show that the Oromo defectors outnumber the Amhara defectors in the ratio of 20:1. Prominent and once highly trusted Oromos who served TPLF have defected and most have joined Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) - one of the most formidable rivals to TPLF. A number of Oromos who once were instrumental in establishing TPLF rule in Oromia state have either defected or rendered persona non grata or have been assassinated by TPLF security forces for opposing further consolidation of state power into the hands of Tigreans. These include former Oromian president Hassen Ali, former Ethiopian president Negasso Gidada, House of Federation Speaker Almaza Meko, former security chief Yonathan Dibissa, and most recently a highly decorated military leader, Brigadier General Kemal Gelchu, who defected along hundreds of Oromo soldiers in his unit and joined the OLF. Brigadier General Kamal Gelchu is now appointed as the general commander of Oromo Liberation Army which has recently allied with the Ogaden National Liberation Army in the fight against the government of Ethiopia in Eastern Front. Therefore they argue that appointing an Oromo to a prime ministerial position could bring disastrous consequences to the Tigrean domination of Ethiopia. Hence appointing an Amhara is much safer than appointing an Oromo since ANDM has not been plagued by defections as much as the OPDO did. During the past 16 years of TPLF domination of Ethiopia, only Tamirat Layine from the top leadership in ANDM fell out with TPLF leadership. Even this fall out is not due to political reasons but conflicts over their respective share of personal property that was embezzled from Ethiopian peoples.

Those who advocate for appointing an Oromo present the following argument. They believe that the most challenging opposition to the Tigrean domination comes from Oromo nationalists, especially from members and sympathizers of OLF. They also understand that such strong opposition from Oromo emanated due to the obvious marginalization of the Oromos from the country’s social, economic, and political process. They argue that, being the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia, appointing an Oromo as a prime minster would convince the international community that indeed there is democracy and proportional power sharing in Ethiopia. They also emphasize that the ever increasing uprising in Oromia region can subside if an Oromo prime minister is appointed thereby depriving OLF and Oromo nationalists their claim that Oromos do not have fair share within the Ethiopian system. Accordingly, the international community would be deceived into believing that, in a country where a third of the parliament is controlled by “Oromos” and where the prime minister is an “Oromo”, it would not convince anyone if anybody claims that Oromos have been oppressed. In this system, any human rights violation will be perceived as if it has been committed by Oromos against Oromos; therefore TPLF won’t be blamed. Therefore, this group advocates that the best way to maintain Tigrean hegemony and legitimize their rule is by appointing an Oromo as the next prime minister. To minimize the risk of betrayal and probable alliance of the person with OLF, the group suggests that all remaining key positions such as security, military and advisory positions be filled with nationalist Tigreans who will keep the power of the prime minister in check at all times.

Even though consensus has more or less been reached about appointing a non-Tigrean, the Tigreans are yet to agree whether to appoint an Oromo or Amhara although those who advocate for appointment of Oromo seem to have dominated the debate.

Therefore the TPLF politburo has created an exploratory committee led by Sibehat Nega, a founding member of TPLF, along with Professor Medhine Tadesse, one of the prominent Tigrean scholars, and Prof. Kinfe Abraham the president of the International Institute for Peace and Development (Ethiopia)-a Tigrean think-thank group, to investigate and recommend potential non-Tigrean successors to Meles Zenawi. The investigation is aimed at collecting detailed information about ideologies and affiliations of individuals in their social and political networks.

The Nominees

Top leaderships of the ANDM and OPDO have been the focuses of this exploratory committee. The contenders from the Executive Committee of ANDM were Tefera Walwa, Min. of Capacity Building, and Addisu Legesse, deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development. These two individuals have been involved in TPLF for almost two decades. Both were once members of the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party (EPRP) but defected to TPLF in early 1980s to establish the Ethiopian People Democratic Movement that was later converted to ANDM to fit into the EPRDF’s ethnic quota appropriation. Mr. Walwa is the most loyal non-Tigrean, but had some personal conflict with hardliner Tigrean nationalists. Addisu Legesse, who was born in Hararghe and fluent in Afan Oromo, is a more pragmatic Amhara with proven loyalty to Meles Zenawi. He was the person who saved Meles Zenawi from the hardliner Siye Abraha’s conspiracy during the 2001 TPLF internal crisis. Mr Legesse betrayed Siye’s group by informing Meles about the proposed coup. Therefore even though some Tigrean nationalists still see him as a traitor, he has the full backing of Meles. Both Walwa and Legesse are chained to the top TPLF leadership through marriage and financial dealing.

From the OPDO side, Abadula Gemeda, Kuma Demeksa and Girma Birru were the leading contenders. Abadula, former minister of defense and the current president of Oromia regional state, is unquestionably the most loyal Oromo person to the TPLF leadership. However his lack of education and increasing unpopularity as well as the claim by some Oromos about him not being an Oromo has forced the explanatory committee to see him less favorably. Kuma Demeksa- former president of Oromia and the current Minister of Defense- had bad as well as good things going for him. The bad is that he took side with Siye’s faction during the TPLF internal split and was sacked from his position by executive order from Meles. The good thing is that by laying low and never complaining about Meles’ action, he was able to get sympathy from Mr Zenawi who later appointed him as a Minster of defense last year. Meles even made an honest remark when he nominated him to the parliament saying that “Teshrom Yalakorefe” meaning “the one who did not get disappointed even when fired”. Girma Birru, the Minster of trade and Industry is considered by far the most eligible candidate with significant resume in loyalty and ability. He is a well educated economist and had never showed sympathy toward the oppressed Oromos and unlike some other OPDO leadership he never mentioned or questioned the Tigrean domination of Ethiopian politics and economic outlets.

Therefore Addisu Legesse, and Girma Birru, has been the most favored from ANDM and OPDO, respectively.

A credible inside informant from the Tigrean side has confirmed that the committee has strongly recommended Girma Birru to be the next prime minister. The recommendation also seems to have been accepted by Meles Zenawi. Girma Biru, even though he was a latecomer to OPDO, has served Meles Zenawi with utmost loyalty. Girma is an economist and a bureaucrat who served under the previous Ethiopian regime, the Derg, at a ministerial position. According to the TPLF politburo, some of the qualifications that made Girma Birru the most favored candidate are that he has no affiliations with any Oromo opposition political party and has no nationalistic sentiment like many OPDO members. His long resume has also convinced the committee that his involvement with Derg and later on with TPLF is driven by personal and material gains rather than any political ambition. Unless there is a drastic change in Girma’s behavior and affiliation that might force the politburo to reconsider their earlier exploratory results, we will be seeing more of him on TV, radio and trips to foreign countries as a sign of his preparation to assume his new position.


So What?

This recent move by the TPLF politburo and Mr. Zenawi to appoint an Oromo as the next prime minister will undoubtedly generate a lots discussion among those who follow the politics of Ethiopia and the region. I would argue that the move is crucial for TPLF and is a tactical maneuvering by the Tigrean elites. It is an acknowledgement to the fact that the most significant opposition against the Tigrean hegemony is coming from Oromo population. Unlike the short-lived Amhara opposition groups following the contested 2005 election, the Oromos have sustained an ever increasing diplomatic, political and military pressure against TPLF. While legally functioning Oromo political parties such as Oromo National Congress (ONC) and Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) have publicly challenged and peacefully exposed the regimes’ gruesome actions in Oromia, OLF has stepped up its military and diplomatic pressure. The current victory of OLF in infiltrating the Ethiopian army ranks and files has permanently disabled TPLF ability and reliance on Oromos as machinery of war. Similarly OLF’s, pragmatic move in forming the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy (AFD) along with other opposition groups has, for first time, enabled the party to be increasingly trusted and embraced by non-Oromo peoples in Ethiopia. Consequently it deprived TPLF the ability to divide and rule non-Tigrean peoples of Ethiopia. Hence, in the mind of the Tigrean elites, appointing an Oromo as the next prime minister would help them to get back on track.

From the Oromo nationalists’ perspective, appointing Girma Birru or any other Oromo as the next prime minister would not affect the Oromo people positively or negatively. They argue that the Oromo people struggle isn’t about having an Oromo president or prime minister. The struggle, they say, is about dismantling the system of oppression and exploitation- it is about creating a condition that would allow the Oromo to determine their fate without external pressure. According to a prominent Oromo scholar from Addis Ababa University, this is not the first time Oromos have been appointed to leadership of Ethiopia. Teferi Bent was a president of Ethiopia between 1974-77, but nothing changed for Oromos during his rule. The empire continued to be dominated by Amharas. Teferi himself was murdered when he started to show disapproval of the killing of Oromo scholars and leaders such as Tadesse Birru and Haile Fida. Similarly Dr. Negasso Gidada who served as ceremonial president of Ethiopia under TPLF confessed that he did practically nothing for the Oromo people except prolonging the reign of TPLF. Then this scholar argues that appointing Girma Birru as prime Minster would not serve the Oromos as long as the system of governance remains under Tigrean control.

To the question whether the latest move could weaken the Oromo opposition groups, by legitimizing TPLF’s claim of democracy, a leader of one of the Oromo political parties here in Addis argued that as long as the government continue to harass, imprison and kill Oromo students, scholars and farmers, there will be impossible to slow down Oromo struggle let alone stop it.

Finally several critical questions remain unanswered. Would the Tigrean elites make final decision to take the risk of appointing an Oromo to such a key position? Could this risk taking adventure help legitimize Tigrean hegemony as they dream? Could Girma Birru remain loyal to TPLF or make historic decision, and join his fellow ex-OPDO members such as Almaz Meko, Yassin Hussein, Hassen Ali, and Gen Kemal Gelchu, and surrender state power to join Oromo nationalists? These are all question that time and only time can answer.