War looms in Horn of Africa

An Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) leaders warns that Ethiopian President Meles Zenaswi's Government's
alleged "survival" tacties could trigger war in the Horn of Africsa.

Dr. Fido T. Eba, who has base in Washington DC, say that Zenawi's government is taking advantage of
the US and the West's dislike and fear of Somalia's Islamic Courts Union (ICU) to seek sympathy and
support from them.

"Ethiopia is instigating war in Somalia in the protext of fighting terrorism," Eba, a spokesman of the group, said while
in Nairobi. He warned that this could lead to a conflict that is likely to spill into Kenya and other
neighbouring countries.

The ICU took advantage of the interim government's weakness to take over Somali's capital Mogashisu from
US-backed Somali warlords early this year. ICU has also taken several key port cities, including Kismayu.

Zenawi's government is illeged to have sent its troops into Somalia to aid Somalia's transitional intrem government
in Baidoa.

The US has been quoted saying ICU has links to Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups,
allegation that the ICU has refuted. The Oromo established the OLF in 1973 to lead what they call a
liberation struggle of the Oromo people against the Abssinian colonial rule.

OLF's main objective has been the separation or Partition of the Oromia region and population from the rest of Ethiopa.
But it has since modified its goals to including forming a political union with other nations on the basis of equality,
respect for mutual interests and the principle of voluntry associations.

Political observers fear that OLF and other rebal groups like the Ogaden National Front, Afar Liberation Fron and Sidama
Liberation Front could be dragged into the war Ethiopia's arch-rival, Eritrea.

If this happens there could be a possiblitiy of civil wars in Ethiopia where about 35 million Oromos feel oppressed by the
Zenawi Government, Somalia where the ICU has a stand-off with the interim Somalia givernment and even the Sudan
where the El-Bashir's Government is fighting rebel groups from almost every coner of the vast country.

Zenawi's is a minority government formed by the Tigrian People's Liberation Front. The Tigre account for 12 per cent of the
population, which is why, Eba claims, Zenawi fears a free and fair election as his party would be defeated and would be out of power.

There are 70 ethnic groups in Ethiopia, with Oromo accounting for 40 per cent of the population, the Amhara 25 per cent and,
the Gurage 3.3 per cent. Others include Ometo and Sidama who constitute 2.7 and 2.4 per cent respectively. Other ethnic
minorities include the Falasha, the Beja, the Agau, the Shankella, Afar, the Somali and Nilotic tribes.

There us a scenario where Ethiopia government will not only have to deal with the ICU but also with the OLF and other rebel
movements and with Eritrea. Sudan, with an Islamic government, would not come to the aid of Ethiopia. Already, Khartoum
has numerous problems of its own. It is unthinkable that Kenya would jump into the fray.

Both Sudan and the ICU are against the presence of a United Nations peace-keeping forces in the region, fearing theat a
pro-US force would not favour the Sudan's Islamic government and Islamic courts.

There is already an African Union (AU) peacekeeping force in Darfur, which is ineffectrive, while the ICU is against tehh deployment of such
a force in Somalia government, which has been the creation of Igad, some of whose members are in the AU.

Eba, however, said that OLF us neither aiding nor is it being aided by ICU as far as weapons and other strategic
supplies are concerned. But there have been aiding the ICU.

The ICU recently declared a Jihad (holy war) against Ethiopia for allegedly sending its army into Somalia to aid the interim government
of President AbdIllahi Yusuf.

The OLF leader cited recent developments in Ethiopia to point out that things were not well. Ethiopia's Ministry of Defence expelled Air Force Major General
Almeshet Degfe and Army bosses Brigadire Generals Kumera Assefa and Asamenew Tsgie. No explanations were given.

Recently several senior officers defected to Eritrea or joined rebel groups like the OLF. In August this year, an Ethiopian army Officer of
Oromo descent, Brigadier General Kemal Geilchu, defected to Eritrea. He went with more than 100 Ethiopian troops under his command.
The army officer said he was unhappy with the tdreatment of Oromo people by the government of Ethiopia.

Eritrea is stillat war with Ethiopia over a border dispute after it got independent from Ethiopia in 1993 following a 30-years guerilla war
that ended in December 2000. Both countries signed a peace deal, which allowed an indepenedent commission to determine their border.

Both countries have stationed thou-sands of troops on each side of the 1000km border, which a 25km buffer zone separating the two
armies being patrolled by UN peacekeepers.

OLF claims that the Ethiopian government is trying to influence Kenya and other Western nations in a bid to isolate it. The Ethiopian
government has once tried to convice the US to put the OLF on the list of terrorist organisations, Eba says.

OLF itself is putting pressure on the Ethiopian to exercise "the right of self determination". "Wewabt ti be able to decide on
how we live our social, political and economic lives. We want our basic demicratic rights, " Eba said.