an Government prevent another terrorist attack? Experts believe it is coming soon but fears are rife that the Government cannot prevent an attack or adequately respond to one, writes Dennis Onyango
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| Paradise Hotel, Kikambala, after it was bombed four years ago. |
The Government maintains that security in northern Kenya has been stepped up since the Union of Islamic Courts militia captured the southern Somalia port of Kismayu. It cites the recent anti-insurgency courses, and says security officers have undergone anti-terrorist training.
Western intelligence and counter-terrorism experts however say terrorists are likely to hit Kenya before the end of next year.
They base their concerns on several pointers, which have worked as signals elsewhere. "Al Qaeda works in a four-year attack cycle. They bombed Kenya in 1998 and did it again in 2002. Between now and the end of next year, Al Qaeda is likely to attack Kenya again," an independent counter- terrorism specialist said in Nairobi.
"Every counter-terrorism expert should be worried. Nobody thinks Kenya is taking this seriously," he added.
Mid last September, suicide bombers came close to assassinating Somalia’s President Abdullahi Yusuf outside the country’s Parliament. A car bomb exploded, killing five people and wounding several others.
The car exploded when the President’s convoy was passing on the way to his residence. The attack was described as an Al-Qaeda-type attempt. A car was put next to other cars and exploded through remote control.
Foreign intelligence experts say the incident in Baidoa last September was the first suicide bombing in The Horn of Africa. It indicated that the terror groups that had been congregating in Somalia are coming of age.
Intelligence experts from the West say Kenya is at risk. "When the suicide bomber blew himself in Baidoa, the war on terror changed," an expert said. "That was the first suicide bomber in The Horn. It showed people are being taught suicide bombing. Once you begin to teach people to blow themselves, it becomes fashionable."
The fear is that terror is taking roots in Somalia, but there are no Western interests there. "The terrorists will come to where Western interests are, and that is Nairobi," the source said.
On November 28, 2002, a bomb explosion at the Israeli-owned Paradise Hotel in Mombasa killed 15 and injures 40 people, minutes after two missiles narrowly missed an Israeli holiday jet on take-off from the Moi International Airport in Mombasa. Al-Qaeda admitted responsibility.
Since that attack, a number of initiatives have come up to monitor regional terrorist activities.
The Combined Joint Task Force for Horn of Africa was set up to prevent conflict and promote regional stability. It is also meant to present a buffer zone against extremism.
Kenya is deeply involved in this initiative.
Since 2002, Kenyan and United States military forces have held bilateral military exercises along Kenya’s coastal region.
The exercises have involved an exchange of tactical knowledge between the US Marine and Kenyan forces.
Dubbed "Edged Mallet", the exercises started in Lamu on the Kenya-Somali border and have gone on annually.
The Department of Defence (DOD) says the exercises involving officers from the Army, Navy and their US marine counterparts include joint sea patrols. "The military exercises have also involved small arms training, reconnaissance and joint sea patrols," DOD says.
Edged Mallet exercises also involve civil assistance projects like medical and dental camps, drilling of bore holes and construction of schools.
The exercises began barely days after the terrorist attacks in Mombasa.
The US says the exercise aims to refine and strengthen the already robust military to military relationships between the two countries.
The Combined Joint Task Force has gone for minds and souls of people in The Horn. Its officials have held talks with high-ranking Islamic official in the region.
Alongside the US Government, the Task Force has donated patrol boats to Djibouti, opened clinics and schools in Ethiopia, Yemen and Kenya. The idea behind the Taskforce and the heightened activity at The Horn, according to senior US officials, was to monitor the region after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
"There was fear that terrorists being flashed out of Iraq and Afghanistan would run to The Horn of Africa. We wanted to strengthen border and coastal security," the official said.
Independent experts say the joint project have been helpful. It has succeeded in stopping terrorists from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq from crossing into Africa.
Experts however worry that with about 17 rebel groups in the greater Horn of Africa constantly crossing borders, the danger is real.
Kenya is particularly seen to be at risk because of the anarchy in Somalia.
"As the US monitors Iraq, Pakistan, Saudi Arabi and Afghanistan, where will these rebel groups run to? They are likely to move to ungoverned space. Ogaden in Ethiopia, Eastern Sudan and North Eastern Province are possible hideouts," one expert said.
The expert, who has been in Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel and Lebanon, said he is not convinced Kenya is prepared to counter the danger or to respond to it. "From what I know about Al Qaeda works, I think it is only logical to expect that they are coming back. Al Qaeda likes hitting one target on and on again. It has only hit Kenya twice. Its sympathisers like Fazul are holed up in Somalia. Fazul knows Kenya well. He speaks Kiswahili and he has friends here. I am not convinced Kenya is taking the threat seriously," he said.
Other than the four-year attack cycle that Al Qaeda is working on, Western terrorism experts say the seven entry points on Kenya-Somalia border are not properly manned. Equally worrying is the situation in NEP, where Oromo Liberation Front soldiers and Ethiopian rebels have recently crossed into Kenya at will.
"The Moyale border needs to be better manned. If a bunch of rifles can move from Mogadishu to Eastleigh without being intercepted, there is danger. If truckloads of TV sets can be smuggled into Eastleigh from Mogadishu, there is a problem. If the boxes have bombs instead of TV sets, they would be enough to bring down a huge building in Nairobi, a counter terrorism expert said.
Kenya is caught in a difficult situation. The country is struggling to keep its neutrality in regional and global issues, even as it wants to cooperate with the US in the war on terror.
But others see the country as the weakest link in the effort to build a wall around Somalia so that none of the terrorists holed up in their can come to The Horn.
The US has been training Kenyan officers in coastal patrols for some time now.
Last month, the US donated six powerful armoured speedboats to Kenya to boost patrols along its Indian Ocean coast amid fears of a spread in unrest from neighbouring Somalia. The US embassy in Nairobi said the boats, worth three million dollars would enhance Kenya’s efforts at the Coast.
"This is timely in view of heightened concerns by Kenya about potential exploitation of the Kenyan coast by criminal groups, and terrorists (and) particularly important in view of the deteriorating situation within Somalia," the US embassy in Nairobi said.
Sources however say Kenya is wary of being seen to be taking sides with the US in the war on terror.
In Ethiopia and Djibouti, US military experts work with the local soldiers to man their coastlines and borders.
In Ethiopia, the US has about 10 bases across the country, monitoring the terror networks. Yemen on the North has an entirely new Coast Guard unit trained and equipped by the Taskforce and the US.
Kenya on the other hand has been cautious. There are only two US bases in the country, and it will not allow US and Kenyan soldiers to jointly patrol the coast.
"Kenya has been trying to maintain its neutrality. It does not want to be seen as taking sides with America in the war on terror," an independent terrorism expert said.
Kenya nearly lost the right to host the just concluded UN climate change conference because of the perception that the Government has not appreciated the evolving events at the Horn and in Somalia.
But even after hosting it, the country lost millions of shillings after the venue was transferred from the Kenyatta International Conference Centre to Gigiri. Sources said the organisers threatened to take the Conference to France after the Government showed up with "a one-page" security plan for the conference.
Sources independent of the US and Kenya say one-third of the volunteer fighters being caught in Iraq are from the Horn of Africa.
A senior US official said some of those accused in the 1998 Embassy and the 2002 hotel bombings are holed up in Somalia. They could spread to the Ogaden and NEP, if borders are not properly manned.
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